Specialists Speaking
Hunter Frame / VIRGINIA
Planning for the 2026 cotton production season has brought more anxiety than any other year since becoming Virginia’s cotton specialist in 2012. Cotton lint prices are essentially the same as they were in October 2014, and if you look at historical data, prices are the same as in July-August 1973 (Macrotrends LLC, 2026).
Now I know that yields have increased due to much stronger cotton germplasm, but that germplasm costs more, ranging from $50 to $100 per bag in the late 1990s to $600 to $700 per bag for contemporary germplasm. Like other commodities, input prices have increased as well, and most crop budgets have cotton breakeven yields in the 1,300 lbs. to 1,400 lbs.of lint per acre. Virginia has only averaged 1,200 lbs. of lint per acre once in its history and that was in 2014.
Cotton producers need to be smart this year, and thus, this means sticking to high-yielding, STABLE cotton varieties in OVT and On-Farm studies in your state’s Extension trials. If you reduce cost by lowering seeding rates, be sure to plant when environmental conditions are optimal to ensure adequate stands. In Virginia, research has shown that lint yields are optimized at a seeding rate of two seeds per row foot. When evaluating planting dates, May 7 – May 21 maximized lint yields across years and environments. I know there will always be someone who brings up a year where June 1-planted cotton was their best… We are playing the odds this year, and data from Virginia shows that these planting dates and seeding rates optimized yields when comparing across environments and years.
Lastly, with this year’s economic conditions, we have to have high yields to have a shot at breaking even, so be smart with your nutrient management; meaning we still need essential nutrients, so drastically cutting fertility programs may result in cutting of yield potential. ∆
Hunter Frame / VIRGINIA