Monday, February 6, 2023

Cotton sees historically strong and volatile prices for 2022

⋅ BY MARY HIGHTOWER ⋅
U of A System Division of Agriculture

Cotton prices were red hot in 2022, but 2023 may see a cooling trend, not only in the markets, but also acres.

2022 was marked by severe drought that smothered cotton planting in west Texas and the American Southwest. The drought would eventually catch up with the Mid-South, but with somewhat better results.

Farmers in five counties in southeastern Arkansas suffered more than $200 million in direct losses to major crops after the major flooding and storm event in early June, according to a preliminary estimate by experts with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture said Monday.
Pictured: Dr. Bill Robertson.
Extension cotton agronomist Bill Robertson said cotton variety selection for 2023 will be critical for farmers.

“For cotton, 2022 was a year characterized not only by historically strong prices, but also historically volatile price swings,” said Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

The heavily marketed December futures contract traded to a high of $1.3379 in mid-May.

“That was the highest trade for the December contract since June 2011,” Stiles said. “Following the mid-May peak, the cotton market turned sharply lower for much of the remaining growing season.

“There were brief price recoveries, but the December contract did trade as low as 70.21 on Halloween,” he said. “Scary for sure as the 2022 crop price traded in a range of over 63 cents this year. From top to bottom, 63 cents is equivalent to $741 per acre for a crop that’s projected to average 1,166 pounds.”

2022 acreage

Stiles said that early on, “attractive cotton prices pulled our acreage up to multi-year highs. On the final day of January, the December futures contract traded above the magical $1 mark. Prices continued to trend higher until mid-May and competed well with soybeans and corn, which were also at decade-price highs.

Projected harvest, yields and price for cotton as of USDA’s November estimates. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image by Scott Stiles)
Projected harvest, yields and price for cotton as of USDA’s November estimates. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image by Scott Stiles)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Arkansas would harvest 630,000 acres in 2022. “This is up 155,000 acres or one-third from 2021 and the highest since 2011,” Stiles said.

From USDA’s November reporting, Arkansas is projected to have an average yield of 1,166 pounds per acre. This is down 82 pounds or 6.6 percent from last year’s record of 1,248 pounds. Stiles said the yield estimate was preliminary, with USDA set to release its final production numbers on Jan. 12.

“The yield reduction from last year is likely attributed to the extreme heat and above-average daily temperatures,” he said. “Some areas of the state went for a period of 40 days without supplemental rainfall during the stretch of excessive heat. This could have played a detrimental role in pollination and seed counts per boll. The impacts varied somewhat by planting date.”

Dry harvest

“The 2022 season in Arkansas brought about issues we more commonly hear about from producers out west,” said Bill Robertson, extension cotton agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “However, the dry fall moved harvest progress at perhaps the most rapid pace we have ever experienced.

“Most of our crop picked very clean. Good cotton usually picks clean, especially when little rainfall occurs after boll opening,” he said. “Little weather-related losses gave us the opportunity to get almost everything the plant produced in the module. Our yield-per-acre values should be higher than expected. This is good news especially in our current economic situation.”

The downside is that dry cotton doesn’t pack well “and is evident in the fact that most of our round modules are 10 to 15 percent lighter than we generally see,” Robertson said. “Our color is great and leaf values are low as a result of the dry cotton. The dry cotton is also presenting an unusual challenge for Arkansas ginners to have cotton conditioned to the moisture ranges that ensure lint quality is preserved.”

Robertson said the dry fall was a bonus for consultants pulling soil samples and producers getting fields worked up for next year. However, the dry weather presents challenges for call cover crops.

“Establishing cover crops has been extremely challenging this year. Most expect poor growth at best with covers this fall as our temperatures dropped significantly before the moisture we needed for good growth arrived,” he said.

The biggest issue most cotton growers were facing post-harvest was an increased percentage of crop in the discount range for high micronaire, which represents thickness of the cotton fiber’s cell walls.

“The wonderful weather we had basically the whole month of September matured our top crop more so than we may have ever experienced in Arkansas,” Robertson said. “Between the more mature bolls and delays in initiation of our harvest aid programs, some varieties are falling in the discount range for high micronaire more than others.”

Looking to 2023

“Looking forward, it appears cotton acres could decline in 2023,” Stiles said. “The cotton market is closely tied to the health of the general economy. Lower consumer spending due to higher borrowing costs and price inflation for basic consumer goods have pressured cotton prices.

Stiles said in last November that the December 2023 futures contract was trading near 78 cents.

“At that price level in a typical share rent situation, cotton will cover variable costs only on the highest productivity farms with a historical average above 1,300 pounds,” he said. “Too, with September ’23 corn trading at $6.20 and lower input cost soybeans at $13.78, these competitors could pull some acres away from cotton next year.

“There’s still plenty of time for commodity prices to change before planting,” Stiles said. “U.S. cotton ending stocks remain tight at 3 million bales. For that reason, cotton prices may be forming a base of support at least. The cotton market needs to see mill demand start to recover.”

Robertson said cotton growers’ plans for 2023 should be falling in place.

“Variety selection is one of the most important decisions a producer makes,” he said. “Once planted, no amount of effort can make up for a poor decision.

Information to assist in variety evaluation may be found at the University of Arkansas System Division of Ag Variety Testing webpage at https://aaes.uada.edu/variety-testing/  for results from the county and the official variety testing, OVT, programs.


Mary Hightower is University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture communications director. She may be reached at mhightower@uaex.edu.

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